Why 52.4% is the most important percentage in the game

Have you ever wanted to trade equipment like stocks? Click here to learn more about the new way to invest in sports! Albert Einstein allegedly claimed that compound interest is the most powerful force in the universe, stating: “Whoever understands this deserves it.

who doesn’t … who doesn’t … pay. “The simple mathematical logic that supports compound interest’s ability to increase capital exponentially over time is irrefutable. Anyone with financial experience, or even a little familiar with counting beans, knows that time is money. Likewise, the fact that athletes must win or cover bets at least 52.4% of the time is an unavoidable obstacle that every athlete must overcome to obtain benefits. The economics of a sports game is structured in such a way that sports or home betting typically has to bet at least 1.10x to win x. In other words, most bookmakers give odds between 10 and 11, forcing the player to risk $ 11 to win $ 10, depending on the outcome of the binary event (e.g. win or lose, extend coverage or no). ). If your team wins or closes, you win $ 10 (in addition to your $ 11 deposit).

If not, the bookmaker will leave you $ 11. And if the result is a push (for example, markup = margin), the money is not exchanged. To better illustrate this concept and explain the derivation of 52.4%, we resort to the expected value formula [see p. Example 1.0 below].

Bookmakers benefit from being on the winning side of the bet and / or;

Determine the expected value (EV) of the bet as follows: You risk $ 11 to win $ 10 if Team XYZ covers the margin. To solve for p, set the expected value or expected profit to zero. As this example shows, p = 0.524 is the value at which our expected profit is zero. Therefore, we can conclude that 52.4% is a frequency or a bet that we must delete to obtain profit or place a bet to obtain expected values> 0.

If this built-in advantage was not there, players would only have to win in 50.1% of the cases. We can extend the above formula to include the odds of winning based on the players’ preference to bet on the favorite – we can use the above formula. Simplify the equation even further by rearranging the terms as follows: E (bookmaker profit) = (2 + v) (f + p – 2pf) – 1 According to Freakeconomics economist Stephen Levitt: “If the probability of winning two teams is the same. equal (p = 0.5) or the money bet on both teams is the same (f = 0.5), the gross profit of the bookmaker is simplified to v / 2.

In both cases, the bookmaker is indifferent to the outcome of the game and get a profit without risk. The profit is proportional to the size of the commission charged. “To generate profits, the bookmaker does not need to be able to predict the outcome of the game more accurately than bettors; the bookmaker simply needs to predict weather preferences to balance the bets on each side. Taking into account the factors mentioned above, let’s find the expected value (EV) of a fair coin toss in terms of weather using the following expected value equation (below): EV = W (p) – L (1-p) , Should I put this to accept?

n2
n7

Bookmakers benefit from being on the winning side of the bet and / or;

Determine the expected value (EV) of the bet as follows: You risk $ 11 to win $ 10 if Team XYZ covers the margin. To solve for p, set the expected value or expected profit to zero. As this example shows, p = 0.524 is the value at which our expected profit is zero. Therefore, we can conclude that 52.4% is a frequency or a bet that we must delete to obtain profit or place a bet to obtain expected values> 0.

If this built-in advantage was not there, players would only have to win in 50.1% of the cases. We can extend the above formula to include the odds of winning based on the players’ preference to bet on the favorite – we can use the above formula. Simplify the equation even further by rearranging the terms as follows: E (bookmaker profit) = (2 + v) (f + p – 2pf) – 1 According to Freakeconomics economist Stephen Levitt: “If the probability of winning two teams is the same. equal (p = 0.5) or the money bet on both teams is the same (f = 0.5), the gross profit of the bookmaker is simplified to v / 2.

In both cases, the bookmaker is indifferent to the outcome of the game and get a profit without risk. The profit is proportional to the size of the commission charged. “To generate profits, the bookmaker does not need to be able to predict the outcome of the game more accurately than bettors; the bookmaker simply needs to predict weather preferences to balance the bets on each side. Taking into account the factors mentioned above, let’s find the expected value (EV) of a fair coin toss in terms of weather using the following expected value equation (below): EV = W (p) – L (1-p) , Should I put this to accept?

You risk $ 11 to win $ 10 if the fair coin is tossed.

P = 0.50 = probability of winning the bet (heads) 1-p = 0.50 = probability of losing the bet (tails). $ 10 = the amount awarded to the cross player. $ 11 = the amount the player risks to win $ 10, which goes to the casino if the player loses (tails). To calculate the expected long-term return on investment (ROI), simply divide the resulting value by the amount of risk: now imagine that instead of betting the margin, you are betting on a 50-50 fair throw (ie. E. 50% profit, 50% loss).

A: Never accept this bet as its expected value is negative [EV <0]. As a result, the long-term expected ROI (if you continue to play this game with the same odds over time) will reduce your bankroll by -4.55%. Now imagine a false scenario in which the probability of turning heads is 52.4% (p = 0.524) and the probability of turning heads is 47.6% (1st place). -p = 0.476), then its expected value will be zero (as shown in Example 1.0). While you won’t lose money in the long run playing this game, you definitely won’t make money! In traditional bookmaker parlance, strength, often called whig, juice, or rake, is a theoretical risk.

less than the average profit per unit obtained from the bookmaker, assuming a roughly uniform distribution of the betting currency on each side (eg 50% betting on a favorite; 50% per dog). 1.0, assume 50% of promotions are supported by Team XYZ that covered the margin, and Team XYZ supporters risk $ 11 to win $ 10 per bet if Team XYZ hedges. Also assume that sports bets have accumulated an equal percentage of bets supporting Team XYZ’s opponent. Team ABC covered the margin, and bettors on the ABC margin also risked $ 11 to win $ 10 per bet. Until you reach the end of the game (push).

n5
n10

At the spread value, sports betting provides a guaranteed profit

Of $ 1 per bet [see. See Example 1.2 below for further explanation]. Dom even raised money to distribute +/- 5.5 between team XYZ, the favorite (-5.5), and team ABC, losing (+5.5). 50% of the money wagered on Team XYZ covers -5.550% of the money wagered on Team ABC to cover +5.5. Players on each side risked $ 11 to win $ 10. Team XYZ supporters lose and lose their $ 11 per bet. The house pays Team ABC supporters $ 10 per ticket and has a share of $ 11 from each XYZ team with guaranteed earnings of $ 11-10 or $ 1.

Remember that the house is kept at $ 1 / $ 22 or 0.045 (4.5%) as Vig, with $ 11 of risk plus $ 10 of winnings returned to sponsors of team ABC. Expected Value [EV] / Risk Amount, $ = Return on Investment [ROI%] The return on investment is best viewed as the expected return from long-term use. Our human mind is not prone to natural thinking in terms of probability. By the way, we tend to misinterpret the loss of a given event with a 52.9%

Probability (47.1% probability of not occurring) as 0%, because having a quarter on hand is helpful. tying the mind to what 50% is perceived as a heuristic to better calibrate our scheme in terms of probability. Go around the room and call him 10 times. Count how many times you did everything right. Remember, a 52.9% probability (in terms of probability) is not much different from 50%. Smart bets, like compound interest, are a long-term game.

All of these hypothetical values ​​represent long-term gains that should be achieved over time and with a large enough sample size, as long as your fundamental odds are more accurate than market odds and you only bet around $ 100 when EV> 0 why win. Car if p (w)> 52.4 + n [n = +0.005 steps] *** Let the odds always be in your favor. *** Levitt, Stephen D. Why are gambling markets different from financial markets? “The Economical Journal, 114 (April), 223-246. Royal Economic Society 2004. Blackwell Publishing, 9600 Garsington Road, Oxford, UK, p. 227.